Global steelmaker ArcelorMittal has announced a €20/t price increase for hot rolled steel (HRC), setting a new price of €630/t across Europe. Steel imports to the EU are expected to decline significantly in the first quarter due to anti-dumping investigations against Egypt, Japan, India and Vietnam, as well as the 15% import quota. Some traders are already abandoning imports due to the tightening of restrictions and switching to the domestic market. Meanwhile, one of the HRC producers in Benelux has temporarily withdrawn its offer, planning to return to the market in January with higher prices.

In its December review, Fitch Ratings has raised its iron ore price forecast for 2024 to $110/t, attributing the increase to higher prices for this raw material throughout the year. The agency maintains its expectations for coking coal prices and indicates a shift to oversupply in the iron ore market. Meanwhile, BMI, a division of Fitch Solutions, predicts a stable global average steel price for 2025 at $730/t, influenced by potential US protectionist measures and Chinese real estate industry improvements. BMI also offers long-term iron ore price forecasts, highlighting sensitivity to Chinese stimulus announcements.

Chinese steelmakers significantly cut their losses to 23 billion yuan in January-October 2024, amid economic incentives and a surge in exports. Despite this revival, the steel industry still faces challenges from overcapacity and the real estate crisis. Increased production and near-record exports helped boost prices, but favorable conditions may not last due to colder weather and global protectionism. Large industrial enterprises' total profit declined by 4.3% YoY to 5.868 trillion yuan.